Transition Probabilities and Rates

Selection of initial model input parameters is an important step during model development. Input parameters are typically chosen to represent characteristics of the entire population: transitional probabilities (initiation, cessation, quitting, switching) and health outcome (mortality and/or morbidity rates). The initial values of these parameters are typically estimated from sources representative of the population, such as complex probability population surveys and censuses. TOBA-650 - Getting issue details... STATUS

Transitional Probabilities

Transition probabilities determine the rate at which the population changes with respect to time during the period of interest. For example, one might be interested in projecting the health impact of introducing a new tobacco product to the US population for a period of 50 years starting with the year 2000; transition probabilities govern transition between tobacco use behavior as well as health outcome during the projection period (50 years, in this example). The following figure shows different transition for a 2-products model developed by the FDA; each letter represents a transitional probability representing transitions from tobacco use behaviors over time

In the figure, TOBA-651 - Getting issue details... STATUS a represents the probability of initiating product 1; b represents the probability of initiating product 2; and e represents the probability of initiating both products. Transition probabilities are estimated from population surveys and other sources, and they are typically tabulated by sex, age and race. In some models, these are constant during the entire simulation period, but they could also change over time.

Example

This is an example of an ADaM dataset designed to capture the reference data describing historical transitional probabilities. When there are two products in the TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY there are 27 different possible transitions. In the example data below, STRTM4 captures the combination of tobacco products of interest for this particular set of probabilities and STRTM5 captures the status of product(s) of interest pre-transition. STRTM6 captures the transition type of the combination of usage at the point of probability and STRTM7 captures the status of product(s) of interest post-transition.

Row 1:	Shows INITIATION of both products going from NEVER/NEVER to CURRENT/CURRENT.
Row 2:	Shows CESSATION of both products going from CURRENT/CURRENT to FORMER/FORMER.
Row 3:	Shows RELAPSE of both products going from FORMER/FORMER to CURRENT/CURRENT.
Rows 4-27:	Show various combinations and pathways of transitional probabilities that are captured in the historical data.

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rftransp.xpt

Row	STRTM1	STRVAL1	STRTM2	STRVAL2	STRTM3	STRVAL3	STRTM4	STRVAL4	STRTM5	STRVAL5	STRTM6	STRVAL6	STRTM7	STRVAL7	INPRM	INPRMVAL	INPRMU
1	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	NEVER/NEVER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	INITIATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.15	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
2	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	CESSATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	FORMER/FORMER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.03	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
3	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	FORMER/FORMER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	RELAPSE	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
4	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	NEVER/NEVER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	INITIATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	NEVER/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
5	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	NEVER/CURRENT	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	SWITCHING	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/FORMER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
6	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	NEVER/CURRENT	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	CESSATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	NEVER/FORMER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.06	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
7	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	CURRENT/FORMER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	SWITCHING	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	FORMER/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.03	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
8	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	CURRENT/FORMER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	CESSATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	FORMER/FORMER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
9	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	FORMER/FORMER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	RELAPSE	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/FORMER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
10	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	CURRENT/FORMER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	RELAPSE	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
11	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	CESSATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/FORMER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.01	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
12	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	NEVER/FORMER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	INITIATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/FORMER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
13	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	NEVER/FORMER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	RELAPSE	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	NEVER/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
14	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	NEVER/FORMER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	RELAPSE	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
15	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	NEVER/NEVER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	INITIATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/NEVER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.01	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
16	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	CURRENT/NEVER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	SWITCHING	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	FORMER/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.03	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
17	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	CURRENT/NEVER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	CESSATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	FORMER/NEVER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.04	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
18	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	FORMER/NEVER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	RELAPSE	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.03	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
19	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	FORMER/NEVER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	RELAPSE	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/NEVER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
20	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	FORMER/NEVER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	INITIATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	FORMER/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.05	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
21	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	FORMER/CURRENT	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	RELAPSE	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
22	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	FORMER/CURRENT	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	CESSATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	FORMER/FORMER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
23	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	FORMER/FORMER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	RELAPSE	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	FORMER/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
24	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	CURRENT/NEVER	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	INITIATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.01	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
25	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	CESSATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	FORMER/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.01	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
26	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	NEVER/CURRENT	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	INITIATION	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/CURRENT	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000
27	YEAR	2000	AGE	24	SEX	F	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	FORMER/CURRENT	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	SWITCHING	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	CURRENT/FORMER	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	0.02	RATIO / 10 PER 1000

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Dataset Wrapper Debug Message

Please add a row column to your dataset.

RFTRANSP Dataset Metadata

Dataset	Description	Class	Structure	Purpose	Keys	Location	Documentation
RFTRANSP	Reference Data for Transition Prob	REFERENCE DATA STRUCTURE	one record per input value	reference	STRTM1, STRM2, STRTM3, STRTM4 STRTM5 STRTM6 STRTM7	rftransp.xpt	NA

RFTRANSP Variable Metadata

Variable Name	Variable Label	Type	Codelist/Controlled Terms	Core	Notes
STRTM1	Stratum 1	text	YEAR	Req	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the left-most column in this example
STRVAL1	Stratum 1 Value	text		Req	populate with the STRTM1 values in the source data (Age in this example)
STRTM2	Stratum 2	text	AGE	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the first part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL2	Stratum 2 Value	text		Cond	populate with the STRTM2 values in the source data (F in this example for displayed data)
STRTM3	Stratum 3	text	SEX	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the second part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL3	Stratum 3 Value	text	F	Cond	populate with the STRTM3 values in the source data (Transition Type in this example)
STRTM4	Stratum 4	text	TOBACCO PRODUCT CATEGORY	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the third part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL4	Stratum 4 Value	text	CIGARETTE/CIGAR	Cond	populate with the STRTM4 values in the source data (Product in this example)
STRTM5	Stratum 5	text	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS PRE-TRANSITION	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the second part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL5	Stratum 5 Value	text	CURRENT/CURRENT;CURRENT/FORMER;CURRENT/NEVER;FORMER/CURRENT;FORMER/FORMER;FORMER/NEVER;NEVER/CURRENT;NEVER/FORMER;NEVER/NEVER	Cond	populate with the STRTM5 values in the source data (Transition Type in this example)
STRTM6	Stratum 6	text	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE TRANSITION TYPE	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the second part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL6	Stratum 6 Value	text	INITIATION;CESSATION;SWITCHING;RELAPSE	Cond	populate with the STRTM6 values in the source data (Transition Type in this example)
STRTM7	Stratum 7	text	TOBACCO PRODUCT USE STATUS POST-TRANSITION	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the second part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL7	Stratum 7 Value	text	CURRENT/CURRENT;CURRENT/FORMER;CURRENT/NEVER;FORMER/CURRENT;FORMER/FORMER;FORMER/NEVER;NEVER/CURRENT;NEVER/FORMER	Cond	populate with the STRTM7 values in the source data (Transition Type in this example)
INPRM	Input Parameter	text	TRANSITION PROBABILITY	Req	populate with the concept describing the value in the cell being captured in the dataset. it may come from a spreadsheet tab name, a spreadsheet name, or any desired parameter indentifying value
INPRMVAL	Input Parameter Value	float		Req	populate with the cell value from the referenced data that is being described by the STRMVALy values
INPRMU	Input Parameter Unit	text	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	Perm	populate with the unit describing the cell values if appropriate

Mortality Rates and Risks

Another type of input parameters are those related to risk; this included mortality rates and risks related to comorbidities. For many models, these are projected over the entire simulation period (e.g., 50 years in the future), and they are estimated from population surveys or other data sources. These parameters are tabulated based on age, sex, race, tobacco use status, and years of tobacco use and/or former use.

Example

This is an example of an ADaM dataset designed to capture the reference data describing mortality rates.

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rfmort.xpt

Row	STRTM1	STRVAL1	STRTM2	STRVAL2	STRTM3	STRVAL3	STRTM4	STRVAL4	STRTM5	STRVAL5	INPRM	INPRMVAL
1	AGE	0	SEX	M	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0
2	AGE	1	SEX	M	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0
3	AGE	2	SEX	M	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0
4	AGE	3	SEX	M	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0.001
5	AGE	4	SEX	M	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0.001
6	AGE	5	SEX	M	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0.001
7	AGE	0	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0
8	AGE	1	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0
9	AGE	2	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0
10	AGE	3	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0.001
11	AGE	4	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0.002
12	AGE	5	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	YEAR	2000	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	DEP1	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	0.002

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RFMORT Dataset Metadata

Dataset	Description	Class	Structure	Purpose	Keys	Location	Documentation
RFMORT	Reference Data for Mortality Rates	REFERENCE DATA STRUCTURE	one record per input value	reference	STRTM1, STRM2, STRTM3, STRTM4, STRTM5	rfmort.xpt	NA

RFMORT Variable Metadata

Variable Name	Variable Label	Type	Codelist/Controlled Terms	Core	Notes
STRTM1	Stratum 1	text	AGE	Req	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the left-most column in this example
STRVAL1	Stratum 1 Value	integer		Req	populate with the STRTM1 values in the source data (Age in this example)
STRTM2	Stratum 2	text	SEX	Req	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the second column in this example
STRVAL2	Stratum 2 Value	text	M;F	Req	populate with the STRTM2 values in the source data (Sex in this example)
STRTM3	Stratum 3	text	RACE	Req	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the third column in this example
STRVAL3	Stratum 3 Value	text	WHITE	Req	populate with the STRTM3 values in the source data (Race in this example)
STRTM4	Stratum 4	text	YEAR	Req	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the fourth column in this example
STRVAL4	Stratum 4 Value	integer		Req	populate with the STRTM4 values in the source data (Year in this example)
STRTM5	Stratum 5	text	PRODUCT COMPARATORS	Req	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the fifth column in this example
STRVAL5	Stratum 5 Value	text	DED1	Req	populate with the STRTM5 values in the source data
INPRM	Input Parameter	text	MORTALITY PROBABILITY	Req	populate with the concept describing the value in the cell being captured in the dataset. it may come from a spreadsheet tab name, a spreadsheet name, or any desired parameter indentifying value
INPRMVAL	Input Parameter Value	float		Req	populate with the cell value from the referenced data that is being described by the STRMVALy values

Birth Rate

At each step of the simulation period (e.g., each year), individuals may enter the population according to birth rates that are projected across the time horizon of the model. These rates are typically obtained from government census data.

Example

This is an example of an ADaM dataset designed to capture the reference data describing historical birth rates.

STRTMy captures the different stratum variables describing the content of a particular cell in the dataset. Stratum may be based on any combination of factors used to describe reference values (e.g., year in the birth rate data); sometimes these factors may be defined as compound factors (e.g., sex_race as sex and race in the birth rate source data). The y index for STRTMy does not indicate any particular ordering; the y value merely indicates a unique factor. If STRTMy concepts change across source data, the same STRTMy variable is still used (e.g., in the source data if a stratum changes from SEX to ETHNIC as the second stratum, then the same STRTM2 variable would be used and the value would change from Sex to Ethnic). The general assumption is that combinations of levels of granularity will be consistent across the source reference data. If that is not the case, then some of the STRTMy/STRMVALy variables may be null.

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rfbr.xpt

Row	STRTM1	STRVAL1	STRTM2	STRVAL2	STRTM3	STRVAL3	INPRM	INPRMVAL	INPRMU	REFSRCE
1	YEAR	2000	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.048156602	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
2	YEAR	2001	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.050162384	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
3	YEAR	2002	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.049912072	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
4	YEAR	2003	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.049953214	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
5	YEAR	2004	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.050199534	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
6	YEAR	2005	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.050497803	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
7	YEAR	2001	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.052554053	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
8	YEAR	2002	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.052289152	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
9	YEAR	2003	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.052334712	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
10	YEAR	2004	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	BIRTH RATE	0.052594772	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
11	YEAR	2000	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	BIRTH RATE	0.043829866	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
12	YEAR	2001	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	BIRTH RATE	0.04509937	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
13	YEAR	2002	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	BIRTH RATE	0.044711283	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
14	YEAR	2003	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	BIRTH RATE	0.044899939	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx
15	YEAR	2004	SEX	F	RACE	WHITE	BIRTH RATE	0.045284915	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	birthrate 2015.xslx

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RFBR Dataset Metadata

Dataset	Description	Class	Structure	Purpose	Keys	Location	Documentation
RFBR	Reference Data for Birthrate	REFERENCE DATA STRUCTURE	one record per input value	reference	STRTM1, STRM2, STRTM3	rfbr.xpt	N/A

RFBR Variable Metadata

Variable Name	Variable Label	Type	Codelist/Controlled Terms	Core	Notes
STRTM1	Stratum 1	text	YEAR	Req	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the left-most column in this example
STRVAL1	Stratum 1 Value	text		Req	populate with the STRTM1 values in the source data (years 2000-2050 in this example)
STRTM2	Stratum 2	text	SEX	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the first part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL2	Stratum 2 Value	text	M;F	Cond	populate with the STRTM2 values in the source data (M/F in this example for displayed data)
STRTM3	Stratum 3	text	RACE	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the second part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL3	Stratum 3 Value	text	TOTAL;WHITE	Cond	populate with the STRTM3 values in the source data (Race in this example)
INPRM	Input Parameter	text	BIRTH RATE	Req	populate with the concept describing the value in the cell being captured in the dataset. it may come from a spreadsheet tab name, a spreadsheet name, or any desired parameter identifying value
INPRMVAL	Input Parameter Value	float		Req	populate with the cell value from the referenced data that is being described by the STRMVALy values
INPRMU	Input Parameter Unit	text	RATIO / 10 PER 1000	Perm	populate with the unit describing the cell values if appropriate
REFSRCE	Reference Data Source	text		Perm	populate with the file that is the source of the reference data (the same columns and rows will change over time so identifying the source allows for traceability)

Migration

Similar to birth rates, at each step of the simulation period individuals may enter the population according to migration rates. Base migration rates are generally obtained from national census data and if necessary are projected across the simulation timeframe. Depending on specific modeling assumptions, immigration demographics define the sex, age, race/ethnicity, and prevalence of tobacco product use behavior (never, current, former dual use, polytobacco use) in the immigrating population at a particular period.

Example

This is an example of an ADaM dataset designed to capture the reference data describing historical migration rates.

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rfmigrat.xpt

Row	STRTM1	STRVAL1	STRTM2	STRVAL2	STRTM3	STRVAL3	INPRM	INPRMVAL	INPRMU
1	YEAR	2001	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
2	YEAR	2002	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
3	YEAR	2003	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
4	YEAR	2004	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
5	YEAR	2005	SEX	F	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
6	YEAR	2001	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
7	YEAR	2002	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
8	YEAR	2003	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
9	YEAR	2004	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
10	YEAR	2005	SEX	M	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
11	YEAR	2001	SEX	TOTAL	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
12	YEAR	2002	SEX	TOTAL	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
13	YEAR	2003	SEX	TOTAL	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
14	YEAR	2004	SEX	TOTAL	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT
15	YEAR	2005	SEX	TOTAL	RACE	TOTAL	NET MIGRATION RATE	100	COUNT

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RFMIGRAT Dataset Metadata

Dataset	Description	Class	Structure	Purpose	Keys	Location	Documentation
RFMIGRAT	Reference Data for Migration Rates	REFERENCE DATA STRUCTURE	one record per input value	reference	STRTM1, STRM2, STRTM3	rfmigrat.xpt	NA

RFMIGRAT Variable Metadata

Variable Name	Variable Label	Type	Codelist/Controlled Terms	Core	Notes
STRTM1	Stratum 1	text	YEAR	Req	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the left-most column in this example
STRVAL1	Stratum 1 Value	integer TOBA-133 - Getting issue details... STATUS		Req	populate with the STRTM1 values in the source data (Age in this example)
STRTM2	Stratum 2	text	SEX	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the first part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL2	Stratum 2 Value	text	M;F;TOTAL	Cond	populate with the STRTM2 values in the source data (F/M/Total in this example for displayed data)
STRTM3	Stratum 3	text	RACE	Cond	populate with the variable descriptor of one of the cell descriptors (either a row identifier or a column identifier) - the second part of the second column concept in this example
STRVAL3	Stratum 3 Value	text	TOTAL	Cond	populate with the STRTM3 values in the source data (Race in this example)
INPRM	Input Parameter	text	NET MIGRATION RATE	Req	populate with the concept describing the value in the cell being captured in the dataset. it may come from a spreadsheet tab name, a spreadsheet name, or any desired parameter indentifying value
INPRMVAL	Input Parameter Value	integer		Req	populate with the cell value from the referenced data that is being described by the STRMVALy values
INPRMU	Input Parameter Unit	text	COUNT	Perm	populate with the unit describing the cell values if appropriate

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Transition Probabilities and Rates