The objective of population modeling is to study the impact of tobacco products on the population as whole. Input parameters include demographic information, tobacco use transition probability and mortality and/or morbidity. The input parameters are typically derived from population-level sources (e.g., census data or other population-level surveys). However, depending on the objective, other sources of data may be used. When using these other sources, steps should be taken to ensure they are representative of the population.
In this section, the inputs to these models and how they are represented in CDISC standards for submission to a regulatory authority are discussed. Model outputs are not currently covered in this section but may be covered in a later release. However, regulatory agencies expect full information to replicate the analysis based in the outputs.
Examples
Initial Population
- demographics (age, gender, and race)
- birth rate "if open system"
- morbidity/mortality
- initial tobacco prevalence
- immigration rates "If open system"
Transition probabilities/rates for initial population
Transition into discussion of examples - to be discussed:
Selection of initial model input parameters is an important step during model development. Input parameters are typically chosen to represent characteristics of the entire population: transitional probabilities (initiation, cessation, quitting, switching) and health outcome (mortality and/or morbidity rates). The initial values of these parameters are typically estimated from sources representative of the population, such complex probability population survey and census.
- initial population (file) - describing states of tobacco use covered by the model
- transition probability (file)
Overview
Content Tools