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Selection of initial model input parameters is an important step during model development. Input parameters are typically chosen to represent characteristics of the entire population: transitional probabilities (initiation, cessation, quitting, switching) and health outcome (mortality and/or morbidity rates).

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The initial values of these parameters are typically estimated from sources representative of the population, such as complex probability population surveys and censuses-based surveys or census data. 
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Transitional Probabilities 

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