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In the figure, a represents the probability of initiating product 1 while b represents the probability of initiating product 2, and e represents the probability of initiating both products. Transition probabilities are estimated from population surveys and other sources, and they are typically tabulated by sex, age and race. In some model, these are constant during the entire simulation period, but they could also change over time.
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Mortality Rates and Risks
Another type of input parameters are those related to risk; this included mortality rates and risks related to comorbidities. For many models, these are projected over the entire simulation period (say 50 years in the future), and they are estimated from population surveys or other data sources. These parameters are tabulated based on age, sex, race, and tobacco use status and years of tobacco use and/or former use
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Birth Rate
At each step (year for example) of the simulation period, individuals may enter the population according to birth rates that are projected across the time horizon of the model. These rates are typically obtained from government census data.
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Migration
Similar to birth rates, at each step of the simulation period individuals may enter the population according to migration rates. Base migration rates are generally obtained from national census data and if necessary are projected across the simulation timeframe. Depending on specific modeling assumptions, Immigration demographics are required to define the sex, age, race/ethnicity and prevalence of tobacco product use behavior (never, current, former dual use, polytobacco use) in the immigrating population at a particular period.
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