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Selection of initial model input parameters is an important step during model development. Input parameters are typically chosen to represent characteristics of the entire population: transitional probabilities (initiation, cessation, quitting, switching) and health outcome (mortality and/or morbidity rates). The initial values of these parameters are typically estimated from sources representative of the population, such complex probability population survey and census. 

Transitional Probabilities 

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In the figure, a represents the probability of initiating product 1 while b represents the probability of initiating product 2,   and e represents the probability of initiating both products. Transition probabilities are estimated from population surveys and other sources, and they are typically tabulated by sex, age and race. In some model, these are constant during the entire simulation period, but they could also change over time.

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Another type of input parameters are those related to risk; this included mortality rates and risks related to comorbidities. For many models, these are projected over the entire simulation period (say 50 years in the future), and they are estimated from population surveys or other data sources. These parameters are tabulated based on age, sex, race, and tobacco use status and years of tobacco use and/or former use

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Birth Rate

At each step (year for example) of the simulation period, individuals may enter the population according to birth rates that are projected across the time horizon of the model. These rates are typically obtained from government census data.Example 1 - based on BirthRate.xls

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