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In the figure, a represents the probability of initiating product 1 while b represents the probability of initiating product 2,  and e represents the probability of initiating both products. Transition probabilities are estimated from population surveys and other sources, and they are typically tabulated by sex, age and race. In some model, these are constant during the entire simulation period, but they could also change over time.  

Example 1 - based on Transition Probability.xls

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