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In the figure, a represents the probability of initiating product 1 while b represents the probability of initiating product 2,  and e represents the probability of initiating both products. Transition probabilities are estimated from population surveys and other sources, and they are typically tabulated by sex, age and race. In some model, these are constant during the entire simulation period, but they could also change over time.  

Example 1 - based on Transition Probability.xls

Mortality Rates and Risks

Another type of input parameters is those related to risk; this included mortality rates and risks related to comorbidities. For many models, these are projected over the entire simulation period (say 50 years in the future), and they are estimated from population surveys or other data sources. These parameters are tabulated base on age, sex, race, and tobacco use status.

Example 2 - based on --.xls - Tony to send

Birth Rate and Migration

 At each step (year for example) of the simulation period, individuals enter the population according to a birth rate that is typically....................................

Example 3 - based on BirthRate.xls

Migration

Example 4 - MigrationRate.xls